ByJames Wafula in Nairobi.
Kenya’s August 9 election campaign could easily snowball into an emphatic first round victory for four time presidential contender Azmio flag bearer Raila Amolo Odinga after he named MS Martha Wangare Karau as his running-mate.
Odinga’s main challenger Kenya Kwanza alliance flag bearer Deputy President William Ruto choice of running-mate, the Mathira MP Nderitu Gachagau, has been roundly dismissed as unpopular and a major blunder.
Ruto had been expected to either support former vice president and ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi who enjoys massive western Luhya support, or the respected ICC lawyer and Tharaka Nithi senator Kithure Kindike.
Instead Ruto is said to have gone against the popular choice of the coalition settling for the former Moi era DO and ex PA to President Uhuru Kenyatta turned bitter critic. Gachagau.
On his part Odinga has immediately won the massive support from women groups as he set the stage for the country’s first possible female deputy president in 60 years since independence.
Since 1963 when Kenya became independent from colonial Britain the country has had 10 male vice presidents serving 4 male presidents. Founding father and Uhuru dad had Jaramogi Odinga, Raila’s father, Karumba Murugi, and Daniel Moi (1963-1978).
Moi had Mwai Kibaki, Prof. Josephat Karanja, Professor George Saitoti and Musalia Mudavadi (1978- 2001).
Mwai Kibaki had Wamalwa Kijana, and Moody Awori, elder brother to Uganda Samia MP the late Aggrey Awori.
President Uhuru has been served by Ruto as deputy president for 10 years.
The choice of a female running-mate from the vote rich Mount Kenya by Odinga is seen as a game changer in the race for Kenya’s 5th post independence president. Karau widely touted as the “iron lady” cut her political teeth during the battle for multi-party democracy against Moi’s one party KANU autocracy in the 1980’s and early 1990’s.
Karau who for years was fierce civil rights crusader for good governance under FIDA was the choice of President Kenyatta who openly supports Odinga as his preferred heir. Kenyatta has repeatedly told off his deputy saying he is unfit to govern as Kenya’s next head of state.
Ruto may have played in the hands of Kenyatta- Raila settling on a widely unpopopular figure facing various corruption cases in court and was early this year arrested and charged.
But Raila choice has backfired in Kamba-land which expected its leading light Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka to get the number two slot. As threatened Kalonzo has jumped ship and declared he will run as an independent naming a former Moi security minister Julius Sunkuli as running mate.
Kalonzo is said to be playing spoiler role on the big two but is likely to emerge as the “third horse” with a massive 2 million votes plus in the east and parts of the coastal region.
As Kalonzo spoils for Raila, Ruto choice for running-mate has cost him big losses in the western mulembe nation of 3.3 million voters. The Luhya had expected nothing short of number two for Musalia Mudavadi, the more experienced former vice president.
But many say Raila could now easily swing the elusive 50+1 win in the first round buoyed by massive women support who are excited at one of them inching closer to becoming what has happened in neighbouring Tanzania where female president Suluhu Samia is in full charge.
The narrative is that Raila, 78, is likely to serve one term and leave his deputy Karau, 65, to succeed him becoming Kenya’s first female head of state.
Ruto startegists privately concede that Gachagau choice was a monumental blunder and that picking outspoken Kirinyaga governor M/S Anne Waiguru could have easily matched the threat by Karau for the massive 6.6 million mount Kenya votes.
Ruto is now stuck with Gachagau dismissed even in his own home-turf as “bad company’, and this could signal his imminent defeat in the August poll that Odinga has vowed to teach him a lesson by sending him home defeated for good■
