By James Wafula in Nairobi.
For the second time in a row and with only two months to Kenya’s fifth transition elections, an opinion poll conducted by Radio Africa Group shows Azmio la Umoja’s Raila Odinga would win the Presidency if elections were held today.
But Odinga would still fall short of an outright 50+1 victory in the first round but strategists are optimistic they will close the gap by end of July 2022.
Odinga edged past hard fighting Deputy President William Ruto, who since 2019 has been the most preferred presidential candidate with over 50 percent which has shrunk dramatically. Ruto has of late roundly denounced the poll after basking in its limelight for two years. He now claims there is no way Raila could be ahead of him. But many say he has slowly woken up to the grim reality he is facing considering the massive force determined to stop his state house quest. Indeed it is in appreciation of this that he told NTV during an interview that he was ready to concede defeat if he “lost fairly” adding he would go home to play with his grand children.
This is not comforting news for Uganda’s long ruling strongman President Yoweri Museveni who has been in power since January 1986, is a fierce supporter of Ruto a close confidant and business partner.
Kampala, according to well placed sources, is alarmed at the possibility of Raila becoming President in August and the expected inevitable shift of the regional political landscape.
Since the Uhuruto junta came to power in 2013, Museveni has been the defacto elder statesman of the region largely calling the shots including using his army to occupy the tiny fish rich Lake Victoria island of Mighingo. His army has roundly harassed Kenyan fishermen some bundled into boats and ferried to Bugiri where they have been charged with tress-passing and illegal fishing. This according to the Arusha based EALA has been in gross violation of the spirit of East African Cooperation whose 2015 protocals allowed for free movement of people and goods in the region.
Odinga has been a bitter critic of Museveni while warming up to the opposition led by retired Col Dr Kiiza Besigye and fast – rising opposing leader Bobi Wine of National Unity Party (NUP). But recently Raila was invited in Kampala for talks with Mr Museveni aimed at mending fences as the NRM strongman realized he could be betting the wrong horse. President Museveni has often linked Odinga with former Ugandan President Milton Obote (rip) who had close ties with the Kenyan fellow nilotics. Indeed one of Obote’s bodyguards in the 1980’s was a nephew to Odinga.
After the 2016 and 2021 elections in Kampala, Raila was widely quoted dismissing the poll as a “shameful circus” that even observers could not find words to describe. Odinga dismissed Kampala as a “white washed autocracy” that was undermining the quest for good governance and democratic ideals in Africa.
According to the poll Raila is expected to win the vote in round one but falling short narrowly of achieving the 50+1 threshold. This means there would be a repeat election after 60 days. The poll showed that 44.6% of Kenyans would vote for Raila against 38.9% who are rallying behind Ruto, the Radio Africa Group poll shows. Coming at a distant third and fourth places are Roots Party’s George Wajackoya (2.7%) and David Waihiga (0.3).
Raila’s political fortunes seem to have been bolstered after he settled on Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua as his running mate in the coming Presidential vote. On the other hand, Ruto’s decision to settle on the little known and unpopular Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua seems to have worked to his detriment, the opinion poll holds ■
