By James Wafula in Nairobi.
There are exactly 39 days left before 22 million Kenyans go to the ballot to elect their 5th president in 61 years, a peaceful transition that has remained an elusive luxury for land locked neighboring Uganda.
While Kenya has exchanged 4 presidents in the last 5 decades, Uganda has had 8 presidents all but one shooting their way to power since the 1962 independence general elections won by the UPC and KY alliance.
The second election in Kampala took place in December 1980 after 18 years and was won by UPC headed by Dr. Apollo Milton Obote (rip). But Museveni accused the Electoral Commission of rigging the result in favour of Obote plunging into the bush to wage a guerrilla war that claimed up to to 400,000 civilians in the Luwero jungles.
Museveni, 79, and in power for 37 years is now one of Africa’s longest ruling and has neither announced any plans to retire nor groomed a successor within his military backed-NRM mass party movement.
There are growing rumours he wants his son who commands the army to succeed him.
Museveni is a staunch supporter of Kenya’s Deputy president William Ruto of the Kenya Kwanza (KK) coalition.
The KK coalition has unveiled its Economic manifesto in Nairobi under the backdrop of a steady decline of nationwide popularity rating in the vast vote rich mount Kenya region.
Since 2018 when Kenyatta closed ranks with Odinga via a symbolic handshake, Ruto was virtually elbowed out of government and spent much of the time campaigning at his leafy Karen house residence-cum-office.
Ruto has barely stepped foot at his official headquarters at Harambee house Annex described as one of the most idle offices in Kenya!
Idle staff at the office spend most of the time reading news papers, playing games on phone and taking tea.
But they laugh all the way to the bank drawing huge perks as salaries and allowances for no work done!
Ruto had camped for the last 4 years campaigning in mount Kenya, the political home-turf of his boss Kenyatta.
He angered his boss as his allies kept winning one by-election after another even in the president’s home village county of Kiambu.
A close relative of the president lost in a by-election that rattled the head of state in no small measure.
A happy Ruto promoting his Hustler economic strategy seemed unassailable in mount Kenya as many roundly dismissed Uhuru’s choice of Raila as his successor. But that has since changed. Overnight!
Uhuru had warned Ruto that the 2022 election was a marathon not a sprint 100 metres saying an older, patient runner, was likely to carry the day!
Opinion pollsters for the third time have put Azmio la Umoja’s Raila Odinga ahead at 42 percent while Ruto is at 38 percent. Odinga is still shy of the 50+1 but his strategists have vowed to achieve a landslide win in round one.
The man whose Economic blue-print runs under the slogan of “every hustle matters” widely believed to appeal to millions of low income Kenyans in the informal sector, seems to have been outfoxed by President Uhuru Kenyatta’s choice of a female running-mate for Raila Odinga.
The choice of civil rights firebrand M/S Martha Karau appeared to have caused a tectonic shift in the mount Kenya region as Uhuru assures his tribesmen they will only be a heart beat away from power!
For many in central Kenya betting their odds on an aging Raila may be better than the younger and over assertive Ruto some accuse of killing Kikuyus in the deadly 2007-09 post election violence that claimed 1350 lives and displaced 650,000.
But a 2012-13 video audio clip doing the rounds online and being played on campaign loud speakers by Ruto campaigners has revived the question of Uhuru’s alleged political debt to his deputy.
The clip features President Kenyatta declaring in swahili during the 2013 election campaigns that he would rule 10 years and then pass the mantle to Ruto who would also do 10 years. “Yangu kumi alafu ya Ruto kumi”!
This comes in the wake of growing alarm by the Ruto camp that they could be facing disaster on August 9 2022!
It is now fast becoming an all system go no-holds barred with desperation growing after one opinion poll after another puts Raila ahead of the pack.
The campaigns could get murky and dirty as both front runners refuse to entertain any thought of defeat. Many in East Africa are praying that all will be well that ends well. Many are warning that if Nairobi sneezes, East Africa catches a cold not helped by the lingering covid 19 global pandemic ■
