By Jamesa Wafula in Nairobi.
Few would have imagined a few months ago after the hotly contested August 9 2022 presidential election that President William Ruto could visit the home turf of his main competitor and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and even leave with a gift of bull, and tonnes of fish!
But President Ruto who appears to be riding on a shifting political tide has made forays in the “Lions den” and been welcomed by cheering crowds many still not able to believe he had defeated state-backed Odinga in the closely contested poll last year.
Dr. Ruto, 56, true to typical scheming was accompanied by his overtly abrasive deputy Nderitu Gachagau who many watchers say could be the major stumbling block to a possible Raila-Ruto political alliance.
The President appears to be almost re-nacting the moves of his immediate predecessor, retired president Uhuru Kenyatta, 62, who on March 9 2018 closed ranks with Odinga through a symbolic political handshake before later touring Luo Nyanza and even spending two nights at Odinga’s Bondo home!
While in the case of Ruto there has been no open handshake so far, many familiar with Kenyan politics say such a move could well be in the offing given Raila’s astute strategy of always going with the mood of his home-turf.
Both Raila and Ruto were close allies in the bungled Presidential election of 2007 that degenerated into deadly civil strife which claimed 1350 lives and displaced 650,000.
Uhuru and Ruto later faced ICC charges on allegations of fronting the violence but the cases collapsed after witnesses recanted evidence. Meanwhile Mr Odinga who claimed to have defeated President Mwai Kibaki (rip) but had his victory ‘stolen” agreed to share power following a US- backed UN truce fronted by the former UN Secretary General Mr Koffi Annan. Annan chaired 30 days of nerve racking political negotiations which spared the country from going down the precipe of total anarchy with Kibaki remaining President while Odinga became Prime Minister. The two shared cabinet posts on a 50- 50 basis with Ruto being appointed Agriculture Minister but later sacked by Raila and re-appointed by Kibaki as Education minister.
Odinga, 78, is no stranger to the Rift valley home-turf of President Ruto having in 2007 virtually swept the board with staggering votes against Kibaki until his one million lead was controversially reversed at the last minute. The election boss Samuel Kivuiti who declared Kibaki winner as the country descended into chaos would later tell a BBC reporter that he does not know who won the election! Yet Kvuiti now long gone to his maker earlier at state house declared Kibaki winner surrounded by troops as the opposition ODM rejected the result as a total sham! Among major ODM stalwarts and Rift valley kingpin was Ruto then a close aide to Raila.
But the ground has since shifted true to Machiavelli doctrine that there are no fixed positions in politics, yesterday’s rival could be today’s ally and vice verse. While many see a possibility of Raila again worming his way into the establishment as he did during Kenyatta’s tenure, this would however have far reaching implications in the populous mount Kenya region.
With eyes on 2027 still five years away, Ruto is all too aware of the pivotal role played by the central Kenya voters who roundly voted for the president rejecting Kenyatta’s preferred successor!
Indeed, many were quick to note that the people who erupted into prolonged celebrations were largely central Kenya voters who even rejected their own daughter and Odinga’s running-mate ‘iron lady” tough talking Ms Martha Karua.
It is not lost on many that since former Prime Minister Odinga met with President Ruto in the US last December where President Joe Biden hosted the two, political temperatures have since gone down considerably.
Odinga has stopped complaining about his “stolen victory” and attacks on the judiciary which threw out his petition against Ruto’s victory terming it “hot air”. Having been virtually a quasi Co-President during Kenyatta’s second term enjoying all the trappings of state power, many say Raila now views another stint in the cold benches of opposition as an unwelcome development.
With advancing age, Kenya’s most detained politician no longer appears to have the fire and gusto that made him the foremost radical voice for decades against the establishment. Agreeing to abandon decades of being seen as the spokesman of the downtrodden in the handshake with Kenyatta many say cost the Azmio la Umoja colossal support across the country.
Many have argued that he could have replicated the 2007 euphoria or even 2017 even if he had stuck to the opposition as working with Kenyatta who sidelined Ruto only made him increasingly unpopular in the eyes of ordinary wananchi.
Odinga’s political clout in Luo Nyanza has remained unassailable and the fact that thousands came out to welcome Ruto can hardly be viewed as a mere spontaneous response. During campaigns last year Ruto’s convoy was stoned by rowdy youth in Kondlele on the outskirts of Kisumu.
But if Ruto is following Uhuru’s script he has the DP breathing down his neck to contend with! Gachagau a former MP in Nyeri has roundly rejected any calls for backroom handshake deals!
Ruto on his part has consistently argued for a strong and vibrant opposition to keep the government on its toes but many see this as double speak!
The President is all too aware he won with a razor thin majority and that half of the country virtually voted for Odinga. In this context, Ruto would welcome any positive move that could see pro-Odinga strongholds join his 2027 campaign war chest already being prepared.
The Kenyan President with humble origins having once sold roast chicken at the Eldoret bus stop is an advocate of planning early for a long journey!
Now a proud owner of a massive poultry farm and ranches together with a palatial home where 11 helicopters are packed, Kenya’s President reads like a rags to riches script!
His “hustler slogan” which Kenyatta and Raila roundly trashed worked well with many low income Kenyans battling galloping inflation.
But that now is water under the bridge and the question on the lips of many is centred on what Raila finally decides to do having announced he is still in the race for 2027 which will be his 6th straight attempt at power.
Odinga who was linked to the failed August 1, 1982 Airforce coup against President Daniel Moi (rip), has for decades taken over from where his father left in 1994 but power has continued to elude the Lakeside Luos.
Whether Raila who will be 83 in 2027 can again re-invent himself and win power against President Ruto is a tall order many say might be next to impossible! If Ruto could win virtually isolated by the incumbent and helpless in 2022, how about 2027 when he is in power, many have pondered■
